Decision Making under Uncertain Environment
The objective of this course is to present a unique Artificial Intelligence (AI) tool, which may assist in decisions making under uncertain environments. There are times when we reach cross roads, in various environments, which require us to choose a direction among several options. These environments may be social, financial, technical, legal, medical, combat or general where the decision outcome may be success or failure.
The “all in one” decision tool, which is presented in this course, is based on artificial intelligence techniques. It requires selecting the decision environment with at least two solution options. Using button clicks, on PC or a cell phone, estimated values of possible success and failure outcomes of each option are entered as inputs. These input values are selected from a value ladder scale for the environment of interest, such as Maslow value ladder and others. Similarly, using button clicks, the success probability of each option is selected from estimated key decision maker characteristics. With the assigned model variables, the tool applies a von Neumann utility function to automatically calculate the total expected gain of each option, based on which it recommends the option with the highest expected gain.
The tool does not guaranty a decision success. It provides a quick quantitative score to each decision option based on its selected qualitative input values. It therefore allows a quick sensitivity analysis, within minutes over a PC, iPad, or a cell phone, observing the effect that changing input variables has on the decision results. As such, it may assists the decision maker in reaching by trial and error an optimal decision under uncertain, risky environment.